Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-310).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Alvin Kamara has rushed for 0.29 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (76th percentile).
The Carolina Panthers defensive ends project as the 4th-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game near the goal line this week (57.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (70.2% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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