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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+157/-221).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +157.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

Alvin Kamara has been given 53.6% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Opposing teams have run for the 6th-most touchdowns in the league (1.15 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 24th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-least run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 38.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.

The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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