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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+202/-304).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -249 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -304.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Alvin Kamara has been given 57.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints have been the 7th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 36.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.67 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.

The Los Angeles Rams linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to run defense.

The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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