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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Alvin Kamara has run for 0.31 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (77th percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in football (1.12 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 4th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints rank as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team's running game near the end zone this week (61.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (71.4% in games he has played).

The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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