Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Saints are predicted by the projections to run 66.0 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The model projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.9.
With an outstanding 4.9 adjusted catches per game (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara places as one of the leading pass-game running backs in the league.
This year, the feeble Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded a staggering 94.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Saints being an enormous 7-point favorite in this week's contest.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 52.4% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.
Alvin Kamara's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 86.4% to 73.3%.

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