Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 4:47 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -195.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The model projects Alvin Kamara to garner 6.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a remarkable 19.2% Target Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.
Alvin Kamara checks in as one of the top pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 5.3 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (56.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.
The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Falcons safeties project as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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