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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Washington Commanders

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Haener in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Saints being a huge -7.5-point underdog this week.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Alvin Kamara has gone out for more passes this year (64.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (53.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 55.5% pass rate.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Commanders, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.4 per game) this year.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the league this year.

Alvin Kamara's 76.5% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 86.4% rate.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 6th-best in football.

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