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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Alvin Kamara's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 28.9.

Alvin Kamara checks in as one of the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an excellent 4.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

The Giants safeties grade out as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 4.5-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: fewest in football.

The New Orleans offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack statistics across the board.

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