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Alvin Kamara
NFL · Player Props
Alvin Kamara
RB · New Orleans Saints
Receptions
New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 13, 2024 Updated Dec 2, 2024 12:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Alvin Kamara Receptions

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+117/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +117.

Favors Over
  • The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In this contest, Alvin Kamara is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.9 targets.
  • Alvin Kamara's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.9.
  • With a stellar 4.9 adjusted receptions per game (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.
Favors Under
  • The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.
  • The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • Alvin Kamara's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.4% rate.
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