Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+117/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this contest, Alvin Kamara is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.9 targets.
Alvin Kamara's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.9.
With a stellar 4.9 adjusted receptions per game (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.
The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Alvin Kamara's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.4% rate.

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