My Account Log Out

reorder

Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Alvin Kamara's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.9.

Alvin Kamara has been one of the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 5.0 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Alvin Kamara's 74.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 86.4% figure.

More Alvin Kamara Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™