Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
In this week's game, Alvin Kamara is projected by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.3 targets.
Alvin Kamara's 23.4% Target% this season signifies a substantial progression in his pass game volume over last season's 17.5% figure.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
This year, the imposing Bears defense has allowed a meager 79.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

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