Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this week (17.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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