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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -175.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to earn 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.2% this year, which places him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.

The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78.4%) versus RBs this year (78.4%).

As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Carolina's unit has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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