Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 20.3% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Alvin Kamara's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.5%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.