Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-194/+139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 3.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the best RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.5 receptions per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's passing offense this week (12.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.7% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, completing a mere 71.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 12th percentile.