Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to garner 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara's 30.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 99th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 4.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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