Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, totaling 5.0 yards per game compared to a mere 3.6 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (73.3%) versus running backs this year (73.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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