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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

With a high 19.6% Target Share (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara ranks among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a feeble 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-best in the league.

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