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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The model projects Alvin Kamara to garner 6.5 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With a remarkable 19.2% Target Rate (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume in the league.

Alvin Kamara has received a massive 0.4% of his offense's air yards this year: 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (56.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Falcons defense has allowed a measly 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

The Falcons safeties project as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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