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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

In this contest, Alvin Kamara is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.9 targets.

As it relates to air yards, Alvin Kamara grades out in the towering 80th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a massive 1.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Alvin Kamara's 34.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 28.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Alvin Kamara's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a meaningful decline in his pass-catching skills over last year's 86.4% rate.

More Alvin Kamara Player Props

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