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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 136.9 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 9.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

In regards to air yards, Alvin Kamara grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a remarkable 3.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Alvin Kamara's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 28.9.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (56.6% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Alvin Kamara's 74.8% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a substantial reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 86.4% figure.

This year, the strong Browns defense has conceded a measly 29.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-best in football.

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