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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 58.9% of their plays: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see 134.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.

The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.1 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Alvin Kamara's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 86.4% to 75.0%.

The Falcons pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs this year, allowing 4.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.

This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a mere 3.9 YAC.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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