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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

In this week's game, Alvin Kamara is projected by the model to finish in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.3 targets.

Alvin Kamara's 23.4% Target% this season signifies a substantial progression in his pass game volume over last season's 17.5% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Alvin Kamara has accrued a mere -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 17th percentile when it comes to running backs.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.

Alvin Kamara's 5.3 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a noteworthy decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 6.6 figure.

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