Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are expected by the projections to run 67.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The New Orleans Saints have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 66.4 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
This week, Alvin Kamara is predicted by the predictive model to position himself in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.7 targets.

Favors Under

After totaling 5.0 air yards per game last year, Alvin Kamara has posted significant losses this year, now averaging -6.0 per game.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
Alvin Kamara's 4.6 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a substantial diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.6 rate.
Alvin Kamara's 6.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a noteworthy reduction in his efficiency in space over last year's 9.4% rate.

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