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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this week (17.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (22.9% in games he has played).

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.

Alvin Kamara's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling just 3.56 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.57 figure last season.

Alvin Kamara's 6.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a a significant drop-off in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 9.4% mark.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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