Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 62.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects the New Orleans Saints to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 68.6 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Alvin Kamara is projected by the model to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.2 targets.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Alvin Kamara's 3.1 adjusted yards per target this year shows a a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 6.6 rate.
Alvin Kamara's 6.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a a substantial regression in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 9.4% figure.

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