Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Alvin Kamara has posted a staggering 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 31.0 yards per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team's passing game in this contest (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Buccaneers defense has yielded the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) to running backs since the start of last season.
The Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency against running backs since the start of last season, allowing 5.08 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the league.