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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Saints, who are -4.5-point underdogs.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 7th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Alvin Kamara's receiving efficiency has declined this season, notching a mere 5.73 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.57 mark last season.

Alvin Kamara's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling a measly 7.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 rate last year.

The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 24.0) vs. running backs this year.

The Rams pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. RBs this year, giving up 4.16 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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