Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 62.1 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this game, Alvin Kamara is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 8.4 targets.
Alvin Kamara has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 21.0% this year, which ranks in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a running game script for the Saints, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Alvin Kamara's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, totaling a measly 5.54 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.57 figure last year.
Alvin Kamara's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this season, averaging a mere 7.03 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 mark last season.
The New York Giants defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) to running backs this year.

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