Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to earn 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.2% this year, which places him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Saints being a 5.5-point favorite in this game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Alvin Kamara's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this season, totaling a mere 7.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 mark last season.
This year, the formidable Carolina Panthers defense has allowed a feeble 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 4th-fewest in football.

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