Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to call the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a whopping 64.7 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accumulate 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

As it relates to pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Saints grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Alvin Kamara's receiving effectiveness has worsened this year, notching just 5.62 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 6.57 figure last year.
Alvin Kamara's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, averaging just 7.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 mark last season.
This year, the stout Vikings defense has conceded the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a meager 4.7 yards.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.