Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has accrued a colossal 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the least receiving yards per game in football (just 21.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. RBs this year, surrendering 4.24 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.

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