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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -126.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Alvin Kamara has notched a colossal 9.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Alvin Kamara's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.

Alvin Kamara's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, averaging a mere 6.32 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 figure last year.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 24.0) vs. RBs this year.

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