Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be starting backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has compiled a whopping 10.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, compiling a measly 6.22 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 rate last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 31.0) to RBs this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (73.3%) versus running backs this year (73.3%).

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