Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has notched a whopping 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the top pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 35.0 yards per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his offense's passing game this week (15.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.3% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a mere 71.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.

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