Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+267/-448).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +304 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +267.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 24.1% this year, which puts him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has notched a whopping 11.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the least passing TDs in the league to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.