Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+337/-640).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +348 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +337.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has totaled a whopping 12.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 33.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 99th percentile for RBs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (22.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.0% to 68.5%.
Alvin Kamara does not have any receiving TDs this year.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.