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Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+342/-656).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +344 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +342.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.Alvin Kamara has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, catching a mere 69.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) to running backs this year (63.4%).The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
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