|
|
Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+349/-678).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +406 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +349.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among running backs.Alvin Kamara has compiled a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).Alvin Kamara's 30.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.Alvin Kamara's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 55.6%.The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
