Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+302/-539).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +326 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +302.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a whopping 7.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 30.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 71.9% to 79.7%.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.