Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+388/-811).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +410 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +388.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Alvin Kamara has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which places him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has notched a colossal 9.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) versus RBs this year (68.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the least TDs through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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