Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-663).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -656 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -663.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a whopping 10.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 99th percentile for running backs.
Alvin Kamara's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 71.9% to 77.0%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the 9th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.11 per game this year.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.