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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 43.0% run rate.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the projections to run 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most among all teams this week.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to earn 13.9 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's ground game in this game (48.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.8% in games he has played).

As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Los Angeles's unit has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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