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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Carries
Player Prop Week 7

New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Saints to run on 46.7% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to run the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The model projects Alvin Kamara to earn 21.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara has been much more involved in his team's running game this year (67.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (53.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.0 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Broncos defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-best DT corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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