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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Carries
Player Prop Week 10

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see 134.3 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.

The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.1 plays per game.

In this game, Alvin Kamara is forecasted by the projection model to land in the 91st percentile among running backs with 18.6 rush attempts.

After taking on 53.6% of his offense's carries last year, Alvin Kamara has played a bigger part in the running game this year, currently making up 65.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.

The Falcons defensive tackles project as the 4th-best group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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