Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:51 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to earn 15.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has garnered 60.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
The Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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