Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 20, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to notch 14.8 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's collection of DTs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to run on 40.2% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (55.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (69.8% in games he has played).

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