Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.3% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accumulate 14.0 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 58.3% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.