Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.0 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 58.0% of his offense's carries this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.