Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+102/-136).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.6 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has received 61.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.